A spreadsheet can calculate what follows if an assumption holds. That does not establish that the assumption will occur. This fictional general-literacy example explains the difference without analysing a company or competition client.
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Write the conditional statement
A fictional product sells at 10 currency units per item. Scenarios of 80, 100 and 120 units produce revenues of 800, 1000 and 1200, assuming a constant price and no returns.
These are conditional calculations. Their existence does not prove the middle case is most likely or that each case has probability one third.
Separate a forecast from a range of cases
A forecast needs an evidential basis and a defined purpose. A scenario table can instead explore sensitivity to an uncertain input, even when probabilities cannot be justified.
Giving cases labels such as low and high does not establish their boundaries cover every possible outcome.
Ask what remains unmeasured
Check the source, date and definition of the input assumption, and distinguish measured values from illustrative choices. More decimal places do not add evidence.
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